First Call — risk comes off ahead of the print
Overnight positioning unwound faster than the tape suggests. What that means for the open, and the two levels that matter.
The overnight session did the work. Positioning that built through the back half of last week came off in size between the European open and the New York handover, and the tape you are looking at this morning is the residue of that unwind rather than a fresh directional bet.
That distinction matters, because the two behave completely differently once cash opens. An unwind exhausts itself. A fresh bet gets added to.